Tool · teach
Honesty-check your F2P year
Painful board moments are often not warehouse surprises. They are plans that only work if retention and spend both hit hero numbers.
Treat the year as a product conversation: player service needs a business that can fund it; business value needs a loop players still want. A twelve-month sketch is an honesty check — not a crystal ball.
What to put in the model
- Scale — starting DAU, growth, installs.
- Monetisation — ARPDAU, IAP vs ads, conversion.
- Retention shape — D1 / D7 / D30 as a curve, not a prayer.
- Cost — monthly burn and initial investment.
Read revenue, margin, and runway together. If the year only closes with miracles, fix the product plan.
Long games, honest maths
Titles meant for generations compound. A model that only works at peak novelty is short-horizon. A model that survives normal retention is closer to a live service that can fund player care for years.
Pair with Measure · Retain · Monetise and economy design.
Run your numbers
Chart free. Exact table and CSV unlock with work email — for export and occasional product notes.